Category Archives: Science

Betting on politics

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This is pretty cool.

I’m currently reading the book The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki. It is about how, if they have the right characteristics, a crowd of individuals is smarter than any individual within the crowd. That is, the crowd is smarter than the people that compose it. This is why, for example, the stock market is so successful, overall.

I haven’t finished the book yet, but one thing that it has already discussed, to illustrate this concept, is the idea of political markets. These are markets, much like the stock market, in which people trade futures on politicians. That is, politicians get valued based on how likely the market deems they will win the election. It turns out that these markets are incredibly accurate in predicting winners. They are even more successful than polls of the very voters who will decide the election. When applied to Hollywood, they are they single most accurate predictor of opening day success for movies.

Slate magazine has collected all of the political markets out there and put them on one page. It is fascinating what they are predicting right now. Right now, Obama stocks are particularly hot, worth $70 to Clinton’s $28 (the price is how much it costs to get $100 back if your candidate wins the election; you get $0 if they win. If your candidate had a 100% chance of winning, it would cost $100 to get a $100 share). On the Republican side, McCain is crushing Huckabee $94.20 to $1.70. If you just ask which party is going to win the general election, a share of the Democratic party is worth $65.80 and the Republican party, $33.70.

It will be interesting to see how these markets continue to play out the rest of the election season. To the extent that they are successful, we may see these kinds of markets more and more in other settings requiring decision making.

I also strongly recommend The Wisdom of Crowds. It is a fascinating subject and really tells us something profound about how we should compose groups that have to make tough decisions. In my post on Presidential experience, I mentioned that I think it is important that Presidents surround themselves with a diverse talent pool, with diverse opinions. The lessons from this book are why I think that.

The image is from the Slate article quoted above.

This I Believe

skepticismsmall.jpgAbout one month ago (more or less), I sent this to NPR’s series “This I Believe”. We should see if they like it or not soon… The image is from a postcard I picked up in some bar in Seattle. I wish they had made a poster-sized version of it!

When I was in my first year of college, my philosophy professor asked me “If the Church asked you to detain this person, would you do it?” My classmates were dismayed when I answered “Yes.” He then asked “Why?” I said “If the Church asks, they must have a good reason.” He knew my background and was trying to make the point that all it takes for atrocities to happen is for otherwise good people to blindly follow those in authority.

However, it wasn’t until a couple of years later, when I was living in the Basque region of Spain, that I had an epiphany while attending Mass in the Basque language. I understood nothing and, at the same time, everything. I didn’t understand a word, but I still followed everything. It was then that I realized that the ritual of Mass wasn’t something that I ever thought about, it was something that I just did because I always had. I had never thought about why.

At the same time, I was in the middle of my studies in physics, and, with time, the scientific approach to understanding the world became much more attractive to me. As a result, I’ve come to believe that a skeptical view of the world is best. To me, being skeptical means to find my own way in the world and not rely on someone else to tell me what to believe. It means to question why. To be a skeptic means to not take anything on faith, to ensure that all possible explanations have been explored and either eliminated or supported by the evidence.

I believe that the world would be a better place if we were all just a bit more skeptical. In my personal life, skepticism is my only tool for sorting out the truths from the half-truths I am constantly bombarded with by advertisers, politicians and religious leaders. I believe that for democracy to function, I, as a citizen, must question what I am told, must question authority at all levels. I must demand that my leaders support claims with evidence and are held accountable when the evidence does not support their assertions. When leaders go unquestioned, unchecked – when I blindly accept what they tell me – freedom is lost and democracy is put at risk.

Skepticism is essential for the continued health and survival of any democracy. Thomas Jefferson said a little revolution now and then is good for democracy. Indeed, revolution has been built into our system via regular elections. If my leaders perform poorly, I have the power to overthrow them. But, it is only by being skeptical of my leaders, by questioning and examining what they tell me, that I can decide if they are acting in my best interests. Being skeptical is the only way I can determine whether my leaders are honest. I believe that it is my duty, as a citizen, to be a skeptic.

New Papers: Defects and Dopants in Ge

Vacancy-arsenic clusters in germanium

A Chroneos, RW Grimes, BP Uberuaga, S Broztmann, H Bracht
Applied Physics Letters 91, 192106 (2007)

Electronic structure calculations are used to investigate the structures and relative energies of defect clusters formed between arsenic atoms and lattice vacancies in germanium and, for comparison, in silicon. It is energetically favorable to form clusters containing up to four arsenic atoms tetrahedrally coordinated around a vacancy. Using mass action analysis, the relative concentrations of arsenic atoms in different vacancy-arsenic clusters, unbound arsenic atoms, and unbound vacancies are predicted. At low temperatures the four arsenic-vacancy cluster is dominant over unbound vacancies while at higher temperatures unbound vacancies prevail. In terms of concentration, no intermediate size of cluster is ever of significance.

Carbon, dopant, and vacancy interactions in germanium

A Chroneos, BP Uberuaga, RW Grimes
Journal of Applied Physics 102, 083707 (2007)

Electronic structure calculations have been used to study the interaction of carbon with isolated substitutional dopants (boron, phosphorus, or arsenic), vacancies, and dopant-vacancy pairs in germanium. For comparison, equivalent defects were examined in silicon. The calculations employed a plane-wave basis set and pseudopotentials within the generalized gradient approximation of density functional theory. The results predict a range of different association preferences, with carbon being strongly bound in some cases and unbound in others. For example, in germanium, the carbon-vacancy cluster is weakly bound whereas in silicon it is more strongly bound. Conversely, dopant-carbon pairs are not stable in either germanium or silicon compared to their isolated components. If, however, they are formed during implantation, they will act as strong vacancy traps. Details of clusters comprised of a dopant, carbon, and vacancy are also discussed with respect to their formation by the association of a vacancy or cluster pair.

America COMPETES by cutting Science

It wasn’t so long ago that Congress passed and Bush signed the America COMPETES act (I’m sure COMPETES is some big acronym for a goofy-sounding title, but I’m too lazy to look it up).  Anyways, this was supposed to be some big new initiative to reinvigorate America, to develop the areas that need developing to ensure America is competitive.  One of the main aspects of this act was to increase the funding for both science and science education.

Well, initiatives like this are useless if they aren’t funded.  Congress just passed a budget, which Bush signed.  Bush had threatened to veto it if it wasn’t under a certain amount.  Well, the only way to get it under that amount and to pay for the wars was to cut a lot of stuff, including science funding.  America COMPETES is essentially an unfunded mandate.  As a result, the skills necessary to ensure that America will be competitive in the future will not be honed; the innovations needed to keep America at the forefront of science will not be developed;  the discoveries that America is known for — and has won so many Nobel prizes for — will not be found.

It seems to me that this is one of the biggest casualties of the two wars.  (This and the loss of liberties for the sake of security, but that is another story.)  The US is already losing ground, due to, amongst other things, the reduction in foreign graduate students in our universities (because of increased immigration difficulties).  In the long run, America will be safer, possibly, but we will also be more mediocre.

And a personal note related to this.  I, with some colleagues, had a proposal pending for the Office of Basic Energy Science’s (BES) call on Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems (ANES).  This was a proposal we submitted about this time last year.  As a result of the reduced funding for science, all of BES’s open solicitations were closed and all proposals currently pending were effectively killed.  This was not only for the ANES call, but also the Instrumentation, Solar, and Hydrogen calls.  To give some perspective on how much time was effectively wasted, then, on just the ANES call, each national laboratory was allowed to submit 4 proposals to BES.  Lets say 10 of the labs submitted the maximum number of proposals, so about 40 proposals.  A proposal takes quite a lot of time to write.  I personally spent the better part of two weeks working on ours, and others on our team spent considerable time as well.  So, lets say 5 people spending about 50-80 hours each, so 250-400 hours.  If you consider all 40 proposals, that is between 1 and 2 complete years of effort nation-wide.  Already, we were competing for a small pot of money ($8 million, which seems like a lot, but when you consider each proposal is for $1.5-$3 million, it means only 3-6 proposals would be funded).  So, our expectations weren’t necessarily great, but at least there was a shot.  But, now, since the call is dead, there is absolutely nothing to show for that proposal.  Or any of the proposals that were written.

Thus, as a result of the cuts, not only is America as a whole going to be significantly less competitive that we might have been, but a lot of us have wasted a lot of time with nothing to show for it.

Al Gore?!??!

I just can’t believe that Al Gore just won the Nobel Peace Prize. I don’t understand why he is so deserving of the award. I understand that he has brought a lot of attention to the problem of global warming. And, I personally believe this is a huge problem, one that is, before all is said and done, going to require huge changes in how we live. As a result, I do think that Gore is doing something useful and necessary. But, I don’t believe he deserves the Nobel Prize.

To me, it seems that Gore is like many celebrities. He has found a cause he can champion and is doing a great job at that. Just like all the celebrities that champion a free Tibet, ending the war in Iraq, and so on. But, really, what has Gore done? It is said he has brought great awareness to the plight of global warming. I admit that he has increased awareness in the US somewhat. Not to the extent needed, really, for real change, but ok, more people are aware it is an issue. But has he done this on a global scale? It is my understanding that people in Europe are familiar with his movie, but did that make them aware of the problem? It seems to me that Europe was already aware of global warming and already taking steps to deal with it (like the congestion toll in London, for example). And has he reached anyone in countries like China and India, where it will be most crucial (just think of what happens if the people in those two countries reach consumption levels we have in the US)? It doesn’t seem so to me.

And even in the US, is our increased awareness really attributable to Gore?  Isn’t it the better science underpinning our understanding of climate change that is making the difference in how people perceive global warming?  Don’t the lists of respected scientists that support the view of human activity causing some measure of global warming carry orders of magnitude more weight than Gore’s movie?  And who did his movie convince anyways?  Did any Republicans watch his movie?  Did he change the mind of anyone who wasn’t already on his side?  It seems to me that Gore’s impact has really not been so great as people say.  Clearly, he is part of our greater awareness of the issue, but is he really that central of a piece?  I personally don’t think so.

Gore hasn’t done anything to understand climate change and global warming. That is the work of the scientists dedicating their lives to the cause. It is because of them and their computer models and measurements of the environment that Gore even has data to present (somewhat mistakenly, it seems at times). So, he isn’t doing anything to understand the problem. Is he doing anything to fix it? Not in his personal life, unless you count his carbon offsets, which amount to planting trees in some far-off land. And probably cost him less in a lifetime than he gets via revenue from his movie or the money associated with the Nobel. And I haven’t seen any real serious proposals on his part on how to fix it. So, I just don’t understand why he deserves the Prize. Why aren’t the people who are working to understand and fix the problem getting the recognition? (Though, admittedly, that might be the role of the UN Panel on Climate Change that was also recognized, I’m not too sure (though, see below).)

Part of my problem with Gore is that, while I believe he is sincere about his concern about global warming, it almost seems secondary to me. It seems that his primary focus is himself. That the publicity for himself is more important than the actual cause. I don’t get this feeling, for example, from Jimmy Carter, another ex-national politician who has also dedicated himself to personal causes. With Carter, I get the feeling that the cause is first and all the attention is second. With Gore, it seems the other way around.

The only thing I can figure is that the Nobel committee wants to keep global warming front and center, and they can only recognize individuals in any significant way, and Gore is as good a figure head as any for the cause of global warming. Probably better than most. And so this is the committee’s way of weighing in on global warming, pointing out how they also see it as a huge and important problem. In the end, from the perspective of trying to fix global warming, this is the best the Nobel committee could do.  And, in that light, maybe it is worth giving the prize to a figurehead, a celebrity who has taken up the cause.  But does that mean Gore as a person deserves the Peace Prize? It sure doesn’t feel that way to me.

I just heard on NPR a report on the UN Panel that was the co-winner of the Prize.  Now these seem like the people who deserve it, to me.  While not the scientists who are necessarily conducting the actual research, these 2000-odd people are scientists who collate and distill of the science on climate change going on in the world and parse it so politicians can understand.  These are the guys that write the reports that define our understanding of our role in global warming and try to get politicians to do something about it.  These are the people who deserve this kind of recognition, in my opinion.