An “accelerated” trip to England

I just got back from a one-week trip to the UK for a work trip. This is the shortest trip I’ve done overseas. Usually, I like to go for two weeks, just to make the adjustment to the timezone worth it. But, as I’ve got too many things to do back home, I kept this one short. In the end, I think it will be fine. While I had a struggle at times staying awake, I made it through.

The purpose of the trip was to attend and present at a workshop on accelerated molecular dynamics and long time scale simulations. That was the subject of my postdoc at Los Alamos. The idea was to bring together many of the people involved in this research and give the ideas greater exposure in the UK. Most of the talks were very interesting. There were a lot of neat new ideas presented. It was hosted at Loughborough University, in north/central England. They have a wonderful campus, one of the largest, in terms of land, in the UK.

Our host took us to a traditional British pub which served traditional British food. I stayed away from the “typical” fare (black pudding, for example) and got Steak and Guinness pie, which was very good, with no vegetables and extra mashed potatoes.

After Loughborough, I headed to London to spend a day with a collaborator at Imperial College. When I arrived, he and his students took me to a Lebanese place which was quite good. We had a number of starters, all vegetarian, and then gorged on lamb and chicken for the main course. It was very well prepared and tasted great. We spent the next day talking about various projects of common interest. In the evening, my host took me to his place for a BBQ, which he lugged all the way from America after his sabbatical at Los Alamos.

Overall, the trip, while fast, was good. A lot of time spent traveling. I flew in via Atlanta and Amsterdam to Birmingham, as that is only about 30-40 miles from Loughborough. Then I took the train to London. The flight over was a bit obnoxious as they didn’t have the personal TV for each seat. I don’t even remember what we watched. I did a lot of reading of papers and stuff. I took three books and didn’t crack a one. I guess I was too tired to read for enjoyment.

On the way back, I did have one of those fancy personal TVs with my seat. That was cool. I watched an episode of House, which is always entertaining. I saw the first episode of Heroes and was pleasantly surprised at how well I liked it. I also saw Casino Royal (I’m a bit confused by the ending, but will wait to comment on that until I watch it again with Lisa, since we have it at home waiting from NetFlix) and Hollywoodland, which I vaguely remember hearing about but didn’t know anything about. That was good. It has Ben Afleck, who I could give or take, but Adrian Brody was also in it and he seems like a good actor. It is one of those morally ambiguous tales. I highly recommend it.

Also with the TV was an onboard trivia game that you can play against other passengers, which was cool. I won one of the maybe 5 rounds I played. But, there was one question that annoyed me: categorized as “Science and Technology” they asked: what sign would someone born on October 2 be? What does this have to do with “Science and Technology”? It would be fine as “General Knowledge”, but it just does not belong in the “S&T” category. There is no science nor technology in astrology.

Look of the Blog

Well, I just upgraded WordPress, because there were some supposedly important security fixes, but it seems that it is incompatible with the Theme I was using.  And the official repository of WordPress Themes seems to be broken (most of the screen captures are just black), so for now, I’ll have to use the default.  I’ll see if I can find a better looking Theme soon.

Speaking of hypocrisy… the Goracle

Some might infer from my last Rant that I have something against conservatives, singling them out for my vitriol. Well, while I do tend more toward the Democratic side, I don’t think hypocrisy is the sole purvue of the Republicans.

In a recent issue of Time magazine, Charles Krauthammer writes about Al Gore and his campaign to make the world recognize the dangers of global warming. While I believe that this is an important campaign and that we, the global we, must do something about it, Krauthammer makes a number of good points about Gore’s approach, some of which I’d had issues with myself.

The basic problem with Gore (or as Krauthammer calls him, the Goracle) and his message is that he doesn’t practice what he preaches. His mansion in Tennessee consumes 20 times as much power as the average home in the US. That is, of course, enough to power 20 of Gore’s neighbors (well, probably not Gore’s neighbors, but still). And yet, Gore is “carbon neutral”. He gets this status by purchasing carbon credits, which means that he pays to have some other place reduce their carbon emissions by either reducing their amount of pollution or planting the corresponding number of trees to soak up the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide. Usually, these “other places” are third world countries.

I’ve had issues with the idea of “carbon credits” since I first heard of them. They don’t solve the problem of global warming. If we don’t have caps, carbon credits may lead to more trees being planted in Africa, but it doesn’t stop the construction of new coal burning plants next door to the newly planted trees — the overall carbon emissions don’t necessarily decrease and may just as likely go up. If we do have caps, eventually the rich countries will buy all of the carbon emission rights, leaving none for the poor countries who are then unable to develop their economies. This may seem to be not much of a problem for the rich countries, but it would exacerbate resentment of poor countries towards rich countries and problems like illegal immigration. If the overall goal is to get all of the world’s countries to roughly the same standard of living, carbon credits with caps is definitely not the way to go.

To solve the problems of global warming will take a dramatic shift in how we live. It is impossible, at this time, to imagine our lives without any carbon emissions, and I don’t think I or any sensible person is advocating that. But, it will require that we change how we live.

I don’t claim to have done much in this area myself. I try to do the little things: I carpool to work, removing two cars off the road; my wife Lisa and I bought a relatively fuel-efficient car (a Ford Focus); we don’t have multiple TVs blaring at the same time (though during football season, I do have a second one going to watch the games); we have a high-efficiency washer and dryer. But, these aren’t radical steps.

However, I’m not claiming to be carbon neutral. This is the problem I have with Gore. While I believe in his message, that we need to do something now to solve global warming, I don’t believe in the messenger. When his idea of being carbon neutral isn’t to change how he lives but to buy carbon credits, he loses all credibility with me. And I’m on his side! How does the other side, the ones that are skeptical of global warming, view him and his message?

The average person cannot afford to do what Gore is doing. For Gore, paying for some carbon credits is no big deal as he has the wealth to afford it. So does most of Hollywood, who lavished him with so much praise recently. The average American cannot afford these credits. So, even in the US, eventually you will have the rich who can pollute all they want while the poor are effectively paying for it by having to make the changes in their lives to compensate. And by poor, I mean in a relative sense; the middle class will have to pay.

No one likes a messenger who doesn’t live by his message. How well would Jesus’ message had been received if, while accosting the money lenders in the temple, he was a leader of a crime gang? If the Apostles were out roughing people up in the streets for money? Jesus’ message, Ghandi’s message, Martin Luther King’s message, all gathered strong adherents and admirers because there is a sense that they lived their message. They didn’t just preach their message, they were their message.

If Gore is going to convince the vast majority of Americans that global warming is serious and serious steps need to be made to curtail it, he needs to change the way he lives. Otherwise, he will always be a target for his critics who just write him off as a hypocrit.

Mathematical Proof for Diversity

Last week, Lisa and I joined some friends for a lecture put on by the Santa Fe Institute. SFI is known for its quirkiness, and this was the first of their lectures I had attended, so I didn’t know quite what to expect. The speaker was Scott Page, who is at SFI but also at Michigan. He is a computational economist, using methods like agent-based modeling to study economics and how they impact societies.

Page spoke about diversity and how it plays a role in problem solving and prediction. However, he approached the topic from a mathematical perspective. He began with some anecdotes which “demonstrate” that diversity is good for problem solving, predicting, etc. He told of one story, in particular, from an old English fair in which people were trying to guess the weight of a steer. The average guess was withing 1 pound of the right answer! These kinds of observations are what has led to the formal study of diversity and the role it plays in groups.

The short answer is that diversity often helps. If all of the people in a group are “smart” relative to a problem (that is, they know something about the topic; they are not completely ignorant about it, like a non-mechanic trying to fix a car), then it is better to have a diverse group, including what Page called the “pinhead”, rather than a whole bunch of people who are all the very best, but are all similar. Invariably, in computer models, the diverse group always solves problems better than the “better” group. This is because they have more tools at their disposal, as the pinhead has some tools the genius does not have. By working together, they can solve a wider range of problems than if the group only had geniuses.

Related to this is the predictive quality, and there is actually a mathematical equation relating the error a crowd makes in predictions to the diversity of the crowd. If the diversity is greater, the average prediction of the crowd has a smaller error. This has been demonstrated by looking at expert predictions for, for example, sports (NFL, NBA) drafts, comparing each expert’s pick with the average guess. In almost all cases, each individual expert had more error in their predictions than did the average prediction.

I asked Page about cases where diversity hurts and he pointed out that irreversible processes, such as cooking, are cases were diversity hurts. If I throw chili peppers into the soup, it doesn’t matter what tools you have, you can’t undo what I did. If my peppers ruined the soup, it is ruined no matter how many people are helping. The military, he pointed out, is an interesting case: you want diversity in planning, to come up with the best plan, but you don’t in operations, as you want people to follow the plan already made up. They need to be more single-minded in operations.

Thus, the two adages: “Two heads are better than one” and “Too many cooks spoil the stew” are both right. It is only now, though, that math and science can begin to tell us under which conditions one or the other applies. This is fascinating stuff!

The Allergies Attack with a Vengence!

Man, last Friday, I was out with some friends, feeling great and then Saturday I woke up feeling like crap. It felt like a minor cold, and, to be honest, that is what I’d hoped it was. I knew allergies were flaring up for other people, but I’d been lucky up til now, not having even a symptom of allergies. But, this year, wham! I have them pretty bad. All thanks to the little guys hidden in the picture. I’d much rather be sick since being sick is a shorter burden. I’ve had allergy symptoms for a week now and they aren’t getting any better yet.

It is weird how these allergies work. I would think they’d be strongest the first time you encounter the pollen and get progressively weaker as you build up a tolerance. But, I’ve been here in Santa Fe for 7 years and never had any problem until now. I hope now I start building some kind of tolerance.

There must be people who never get allergies because otherwise I don’t see how a place like Santa Fe would ever get settled. Maybe it is the 7-year delay that makes it happen. I also wonder if the Native Americans who were here originally got allergies. If so, why did they stay here? I guess most of the year it is worth it, but this week it sure doesn’t feel like it.

I don’t recall anyone I knew when I was a kid in Idaho having problems with seasonal allergies like this. It must be the dryness here that causes them to be stronger in New Mexico. That’s my only guess.

Well, I’ll keep going, hoping it rains soon to wash the air of pollen. But, man, do these allergies suck!

Blah, blah, blah… I've got the blahs.