Are you experienced? (and does it matter?)

A lot is being made of experience during this Presidential contest. McCain is the most experienced candidate, Clinton is more experienced than Obama, Obama is pretty green. I find all of this talk completely irrelevant. What experience do they have that makes them fit for being President? Clinton has, what, an extra term in the Senate? That is the extent of her elected experience. She was on the sidelines during Bill’s terms, but does that make her a more experienced candidate? Obama served in the Illinois Senate for 8 years before being elected to the US Senate. So, he has more years as an elected official than Clinton.

But, does it make any difference? Is there any correlation between success as a President and previous experience? And what kind of experience matters?

So, let’s see. Here is a list of all the US Presidents, as ranked, on average, by a number of scholarly lists. Unsurprisingly, the top 5 are Lincoln, FDR, Washington, Jefferson and Teddy Roosevelt. And here is a list of their previous executive experience and here is a list of their previous occupations. What do we see when we combine the two?

# President Years in Office Political party Average ranking Previous Experience
1 Abraham Lincoln 1861–1865 Republican 1.58 US House, 1847-1849
2 Franklin D. Roosevelt 1933–1945 Democrat 2 Governor of NY, 1929-1933
3 George Washington 1789–1797 refused to affiliate 2.83 General of the United Army of the Colonies
4 Thomas Jefferson 1801–1809 Democratic- Republican 4.42 Governor of VA, 1779-1781; VP of the US, 1797-1801
5 Theodore Roosevelt 1901–1909 Republican 4.83 Governor of NY, 1899-1901; VP of the US, 1901
6 Woodrow Wilson 1913–1921 Democrat 6.58 Governor of NJ, 1911-1913
7 Harry S. Truman 1945–1953 Democrat 7.18 US Senate, 1935-1945; VP of the US, 1945
8 Andrew Jackson 1829–1837 Democrat 9 General of the US Army; Military Governor of FL, 1821; US House, 1796-1797; US Senate, 1797-1798, 1823-1825
9 Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953–1961 Republican 10.73 General of the US Army
10 James K. Polk 1845–1849 Democrat 11.08 Governor of TN, 1839-1841; US House, 1825-1839
11 John Adams 1797-1801 Federalist 12.17 VP of the US, 1789-1797
12 John F. Kennedy 1961–1963 Democrat 12.5 US House, 1946-1952; US Senate, 1952-1960
13 James Madison 1809–1817 Democratic- Republican 12.67 US House, 1789-1797; Secretary of State, 1801-1809
14 Lyndon B. Johnson 1963–1969 Democrat 13.6 US House, 1937-1949; US Senate, 1949-1960; VP of the US, 1961-1963
15 Ronald Reagan 1981–1989 Republican 13.88 Governor of CA, 1967-1975
16 James Monroe 1817–1825 Democratic- Republican 14.08 US Senate, 1790-1794; Governor of VA, 1799-1802, 1811; Secretary of State, 1811-1814, 1815-1817; Secretary of War, 1814-1815
17 Grover Cleveland 1885–1889 and 1893-1897 Democrat 15 Governor of NY, 1883-1885
18 William McKinley 1897–1901 Republican 16.33 US House, 1877-1883, 1885-1891; Governor of OH, 1892-1896
19 John Quincy Adams 1825–1829 National Republican/Whig 16.9 US Senate, 1803-1808; Secretary of State, 1817-1825
20 William Howard Taft 1909–1913 Republican 19.67 Governor-General of Philippines, 1901-1904; Secretary of War, 1904-1908
21 Bill Clinton 1993-2001 Democrat 20.67 Governor of AR, 1979-1981, 1983-1992
22 George W. Bush 2001– Republican 21 Governor of TX, 1995-2000
23 Martin Van Buren 1837–1841 Democrat 21.58 US Senate, 1821-1828; Governor of NY, 1829; Secretary of State, 1829-1831; VP of the US, 1833-1837
24 Rutherford B. Hayes 1877–1881 Republican 22 General of the US Army; US House, 1865-1867; Governor of OH, 1868-1872, 1876-1877
25 George H. W. Bush 1989–1993 Republican 22.14 VP of the US, 1981-1989
26 Chester A. Arthur 1881–1885 Republican 25.5 VP of the US, 1881
27 (tie) Jimmy Carter 1977–1981 Democrat 26.3 Governor of GA, 1971-1975
27 (tie) Gerald Ford 1974–1977 Republican 26.3 US House, 1949-1973; VP of the US, 1973-1974
29 Herbert Hoover 1929–1933 Republican 26.17 Secretary of Commerce, 1921-1928
30 Benjamin Harrison 1889–1893 Republican 27.33 General of the US Army; US Senate, 1881-1887
31 Calvin Coolidge 1923-1929 Republican 28.42 Governor of MA, 1919-1921; VP of the US, 1921-1923
32 Richard Nixon 1969–1974 Republican 29.2 US House, 1947-1950; US Senate, 1951-1953; VP of the US, 1953-1961
33 James A. Garfield 1881 Republican 29.57 General of the US Army; US House, 1863-1880
34 Zachary Taylor 1849–1850 Whig 29.58 General of the US Army
35 John Tyler 1841–1845 Whig/none 31.75 US House, 1816-1821; US Senate, 1827-1836; VP of the US, 1841
36 Millard Fillmore 1850–1853 Whig 32.41 US House, 1833-1835, 1837-1843; VP of the US, 1849-1850
37 Ulysses Grant 1869–1877 Republican 33.42 General of the US Army
38 William Henry Harrison 1841 Whig 33.57 General of the US Army; US House, 1799-1800, 1816-1819; Military Governor of Indiana, 1801-1813; US Senate, 1825-1828
39 Andrew Johnson 1865–1869 Democrat/none 34.67 US House, 1843-1853; Governor of TN, 1853-1857, 1862-1864; US Senate, 1857-1862; VP of the US, 1865
40 Franklin Pierce 1853–1857 Democrat 34.92 General of the US Army; US House, 1833-1837; US Senate, 1837-1842
41 James Buchanan 1857-1861 Democrat 36.58 US House, 1821-1831; US Senate, 1834-1845; Secretary of State, 1845-1849
42 Warren G. Harding 1921–1923 Republican 37.33 US Senate, 1915-1921

First, a couple of notes. The types of experience included are Senate, House, VP, cabinet secretary, governor, and general of the Army. I’m not quite sure cabinet secretary is all that relevant, but it is here. What isn’t included are ministers to foreign countries and state and municipal offices lower than governor (mostly because it would take too long to look those all up). And, any errors in the above table are a result of either errors on the Wikipedia pages or my copying of data (what other sources of error could there be?). FDR was also Assistant Secretary of the Navy, but I didn’t include that as it didn’t seem relevant. But, for completeness, I mention it here. Finally, I was going to have a total for years of experience, as I thought a plot of rank vs total years of experience would be interesting, but it didn’t seem like it would be easy to find out how many years Presidents served as Generals and how relevant that is anyways.

What can we learn? Well, looking at the three highest ranked Presidents, Lincoln had 2 years in the House, FDR had 4 years as governor of NY, and Washington had been General of the United Army of the Colonies, or essentially no experience in government. Lincoln is ranked so high because he presided over probably the most tumultuous time in US history and, had he performed poorly, the country likely would have split in two. Washington presided over the most precarious time in the country’s history: had he performed poorly, the US might have dissolved before it had even gotten started. And FDR was president during World War II. None of these men had much prior political experience, at least on the national level.

The bottom three? Harding was in the Senate for 6 years. Buchanan was in the House for 10 years, the Senate for 10 years, and was Secretary of State for 4 years. Finally, Pierce was in the House for 4 years and the Senate for 5 years. Each of these men definitely had more political experience at a national level than any of the top three before becoming President. It would seem that prior political experience is no great indicator of success as President.

Looking at the top 10 Presidents, 6 had less than 5 years of prior political experience, while only 2 had 10 or more years of prior experience. And the bottom 10? 2 had less than 5 years experience and 5 had 10 or more years.

It seems fairly safe to say that prior political experience is no guarantee of a good Presidency and lack of such experience is not an indicator of a poor President. I’m not saying that experience is meaningless. I’d rather have someone who has some experience to someone completely green (like me). But, I also think experience is overrated. I think the President’s personality and character are just as important — if not more so — than his (or her) experience. In fact, I think it likely that one of the best indicators of how successful a President was would be the people he surrounded himself with. If he had a diversity of opinions in his Cabinet, I’d guess he was likely a better President.

This is, incidentally, one of the biggest reasons, I believe, that Bush’s Presidency has become such a mess. He had people around him of like mind. The only dissenting voice was Powell, and we all know what happened to him. I also think that, with time, Bush’s position on this list will fall quite substantially.

So, I think that claims that McCain and Clinton are better choices for President because they have more experience is definitely not borne out by history. And, if anyone can turn the country around, it isn’t someone who has spent a lifetime in Washington. It is going to be someone with a fresh perspective. That, to me, points towards Obama.

8 thoughts on “Are you experienced? (and does it matter?)”

  1. One thing I’d like to point out about this: I think it would be very interesting if, in a debate, either in the primaries or the general election, either Clinton or McCain, as they were pounding on Obama because of his lack of experience, were asked who their top three presidents ever were. I’m guessing that their top three are within the top 5 of this list. How would they respond when told that their top presidents didn’t have much prior experience? How would they deflect that? Or dismiss it?

  2. This was just written regarding experience. I chanced upon your blog last week and thought you would be interested in this article.

    Back to Story – Help
    Does Experience Matter in a President? By DAVID VON DREHLE
    2 hours, 13 minutes ago

    A story is often told at times like this – times when American voters are choosing among candidates richly seasoned with political experience and those who are less experienced but perhaps more exciting alternatives. Once upon a time, the torch was passed to a new generation of Americans, and a charismatic young President, gifted as a speechmaker but little tested as an executive, was finding his way through his first 100 days. On Day 85, he stumbled, and the result for John F. Kennedy was the disastrous Bay of Pigs.

    For scholars of the presidency, Kennedy’s failure to scuttle or fix the ill-conceived invasion of Cuba is a classic case of the insufficiency of charisma alone. No quips, grins or flights of rhetoric would do. Kennedy needed on-the-job training, as he later admitted to a friend: “Presumably, I was going to learn these lessons sometime, and maybe better sooner than later.” Unfortunately, when a President gets an education, we all pay the tuition.

    Barack Obama basks in comparisons to J.F.K., but this is one he’d rather avoid. In the run-up to what could be the decisive contests for the Democratic nomination, Obama’s relatively light political rɳumɠ- eight years as an Illinois legislator and three years in the U.S. Senate – continues to be the focus of his rivals’ attacks. Hillary Clinton advertises her seven years in the Senate and two terms as First Lady, saying “I am ready to lead on Day One.” And the message has gotten through: by clear margins, voters rate her as the more experienced of the two candidates. The fact that this hasn’t stopped Obama’s momentum doesn’t mean he’s heard the last of it – not with John McCain, who has spent 26 years on Capitol Hill, the likely Republican nominee. “I’m not the youngest candidate. But I am the most experienced,” says McCain. “I know how the world works.”

    Obama’s credentials would be an issue in any election year. He would be sworn in at age 47, making him one of the youngest Presidents in history, and would arrive in the Oval Office with less executive experience than most of his predecessors. Depending on what your leanings are, you could compare his work history – lawyer, state legislator, Washington short-timer, orator – to Abraham Lincoln’s, or to a thousand forgotten figures in politicalgraveyard.com. The question of experience takes on added bite this year, though, because the next President will inherit a troubled and menacing satchel of problems. From the Iraq tightrope to the stumbling economy, from the China challenge to the health-care mess, from loose nukes to oil dependence to (some things never change) Cuba policy – the next President will be tossed a couple dozen flaming torches at the end of the inaugural parade, and it would be helpful to know that this person has juggled before.

    But if one moral of the Bay of Pigs is “Beware of charisma” or “Timeworn trumps callow,” what do we make of the mistakes and miscalculations of deeply experienced leaders? Franklin D. Roosevelt’s failed court-packing scheme, for example, or Woodrow Wilson’s postwar foreign policy? For that matter, Kennedy would not have faced such a harsh early tutorial if the venerable warrior and statesman Dwight D. Eisenhower had not allowed the Cuba-invasion plan to be put in motion during the last of his eight years as President.

    Wouldn’t it be nice if time on the job and tickets punched translated neatly into superior performance? Then finding great Presidents would be a simple matter of weighing rɳumɳ. Take a Democrat like Bill Richardson – experienced in Congress, in the Cabinet, as a diplomat and governor – and have him run against Republican Tom Ridge, a former soldier, governor and Director of Homeland Security, with the winner chosen by a blue-ribbon commission of all-purpose elders. The Danforth-Mitchell commission, perhaps, or O’Connor-Albright. But it has never worked that way, which is why Lincoln’s statue occupies a marble temple on the Mall in Washington, while his far more experienced rival William Seward has a little seat on a pedestal in New York City. “Experience never exists in isolation; it is always a factor that coexists with temperament, training, background, spiritual outlook and a host of other factors,” says presidential historian Richard Norton Smith. “Character is your magic word, it seems to me – not just what they’ve done but how they’ve done it and what they’ve learned from doing it.”

    There’s something egglike about the concept of experience as a qualification for the highest office. At first blush, the idea appears to be something you can get your hands around. Presidential experience means a familiarity with the levers and dials of government, knowing how to cajole the Congress, understanding when to rely on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and when to call on the National Security Council – that sort of thing. But bear down even slightly, and the notion of experience is liable to crack and run all over. If knowing the system is so useful, then second-term presidencies should be more successful than first-term. Instead, many Presidents lose effectiveness as they go along. Lyndon Johnson, for example: his experience as a master legislator no doubt helped as he steered his historic civil rights and welfare agenda to passage. By the end of two years as President, however, “he was out of gas,” recalls Johnson aide Harry McPherson. The longer Johnson was in the Oval Office, the more feckless his presidency became.

    Was it Franklin Roosevelt’s experience as governor of New York that gave him the power to inspire in some of the nation’s darkest hours? Or was that gift a distillate of his dauntless battle with polio? To a keen student of human nature, all life offers lessons in how to lead, inspire and endure. Lincoln’s ability to apply useful lessons from his motley experiences was among his most striking traits. When Ulysses Grant explained his grand strategy to defeat Lee by attacking on multiple fronts, Lincoln immediately thought of a lesson in joint operations learned years earlier on the farm. “Those not skinning can hold a leg,” he said approvingly. For other temperaments, no amount of schooling, no matter how specific, will do. Richard Nixon served as a Congressman, Senator and Vice President; he watched from the front row as Eisenhower assembled one of the best-organized administrations in history. When Nixon’s turn came, though, his core character – insecure, insincere, conspiratorial – led him to create a White House doomed by its own dysfunction.

    Experience, in other words, gets its value from the person who has it. In certain lives, a little goes a long way. Some people grow and ripen through years of government service; others spoil on the vine. At the same time, the value that voters place on rɳumɠis constantly shifting. James A. Baker III is an authority on this. In 1980, he managed the campaign of his well-credentialed friend George H.W. Bush, under the slogan “A President we won’t have to train.” But the public mood was sour on Washington, and victory went to an outsider, Ronald Reagan, who had never served in Washington. Eight years later, the mood was stay the course, and Bush’s experience as Vice President was his ticket to victory. Then the atmosphere turned again, and in 1992 the public demanded someone new. Baker, a former Secretary of State, still believes that a candidate with credentials should certainly tout them, but in the end, “there’s no such thing as presidential experience outside of the office itself.” The quality we ought to seek “is leadership.”

    Countless words have been devoted to the presidency, and still its dimensions remain indescribable. Two words that recur poignantly are power and loneliness. Former White House chief of staff Leon Panetta recalls a moment in 1994 that for him expresses the intersection of these burdens and the essence of the office. Bill Clinton had called for a military dictator in Haiti to step down, and the crisis had ratcheted up to the point where “the ships were moving, the Navy SEALs were on alert.” Some of the most experienced statesmen in Washington “were all standing around the desk saying to Clinton, ‘You’ve got to make a decision.'” (After Clinton ordered the 82nd Airborne Division to start flying toward Haiti, the dictator backed down.) A President can take counsel from the most eminent advisers in the world, but in the end, only the President can make the fateful decisions. Some decisions are too hard or too weighty to be made at a lower level. “It’s about that moment,” Panetta says – that decisive moment.

    When Americans pass over the best-credentialed candidates because their heart or their gut leads them elsewhere, they are only reflecting a visceral understanding that the presidency involves tests unlike all others. They are, perhaps, seeking the ineffable quality the writer Katherine Anne Porter had in mind when she defined experience as “the truth that finally overtakes you.” An ideal President is both ruthless and compassionate, visionary and pragmatic, cunning and honest, patient and bold, combining the eloquence of a psalmist with the timing of a jungle cat. Not exactly the sort of data you can find on a rɳumɮ View this article on Time.com

    Related articles on Time.com: Hillary’s Quandary on the Campaign The Master of the Game What I See in Lincoln’s Eyes Republicans On The Run Only 648 Days Until the Election!

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  3. it seems that you avoid the terms served at state legislature or local office or US diplomat or Cabinet post. Washington should have served at Continental Congress for 15yrs around, and Jefferson served as diplomat and also 10years at CC. Whatever, this can not prevent us from telling the truth that political experience itself can not guarantee a good president.

  4. Thanks for the comment!

    True, mostly because that is a lot harder to find (I used the info in those two lists only). Diplomatic experience I left off because it isn’t clear to me that it is of the same caliber as other national experience. As for the Continental Congress, I didn’t find a nice, condensed compilation of that either. But, in looking briefly at his bio (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_washington) it isn’t clear that Washington spent a whole lot of time there. He was General of the Continental Army during the Second Continental Congress.

  5. Jennifer, thank you for posting that article. It is very interesting and offers nice insight into the whole question of experience.

  6. An interesting note about the Bay of Pigs: I’m reading a book called “The Wisdom of Crowds” by James Surowiecki in which he talks about the Bay of Pigs. In his view, the real problem was that Kennedy surrounded himself with people who didn’t question each other, who all thought alike, and didn’t consult experts who could have easily told them the problems with the invasion. To Surowiecki, it was because the Kennedy team wasn’t diverse, in terms of perspective, that the invasion turned into a fiasco.

  7. For Kennedy, maybe his failure in Bay of pigs came partly from President Eisenhower who put the Cuba-invasion plan in the motion during the last years of presidency.

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